JAR News Desk

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea has escalated this summer, with both countries attacking each other’s ships and port infrastructure, severely disrupting vital grain exports, and raising fears of further increases in global food prices, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned.

Highest food price index in three and a half years

In its monthly report released last Friday, the FAO said its food price index (FFPI) rose to an average of 133.3 points in August, the highest since November 2022. This increase is about 1.9 percent from the revised 130.8 points in July. However, the index is still about 16-17 percent below the record high it reached after the full-scale Russian invasion in March 2022.

According to the FAO, prices rose across almost all food categories. The cereal price index rose 2.2 percent month-on-month to its highest level since May 2024, with the organization citing ongoing uncertainty over grain exports via the Black Sea as one of the reasons. In addition, the sugar price index rose by about 12 percent in a month to its highest level since June 2025, while the edible oil index also rose slightly to its highest level since June 2022. Globally, prices of wheat, maize, sorghum, barley and rice also rose.

At the same time, the FAO also lowered its forecast for global grain production for 2026. The new forecast is 3.4 million tons lower than the July forecast, bringing it to about 2.98 billion tons, which is 2 percent less than the previous year and the largest annual decline since 2018.

The most dangerous time for sailors

As the conflict intensifies, the lives of sailors are also at risk. The number of sailors killed in the Black Sea in July is the highest in a single month since the war began, making the Black Sea the world’s most dangerous waterway for commercial shipping, according to The Guardian. According to the Turkish Seafarers’ Union, Türkiye Denizçil Sendikasi, 23 sailors were killed in attacks on 35 ships in the Black Sea in July.

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has led to attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. In such a situation, the head of the United Nations’ shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), has also expressed concern about the overall deterioration of maritime security around the world.

Another attack in Odessa-Chornomorsk, Ukraine responds

In the months following the start of the war in 2022, Russia launched a series of attacks on ships and port infrastructure anchored in Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, disrupting Kiev’s grain exports. Last July, Russia again attacked Ukraine’s main grain export hubs, Odessa and Chornomorsk. Russian attacks on ports in the Odessa region continued throughout July and August, including an attack on a Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship carrying Ukrainian wheat.

But Ukraine’s counterattacks have also played a role in the recent tensions in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which is connected to it by the Kerch Strait. Ukraine has used drones to attack several Russian ships, including tankers. Kiev claims that the tankers are part of a “shadow fleet” of hundreds of ships used to export Russian oil in defiance of sanctions. Ukraine has also attacked ships and port facilities in the important Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which is a crucial port for oil and grain exports.

A recent example of how dangerous the situation has become was found on Turkey’s Black Sea coast, where an abandoned Russian-flagged cargo ship was stranded off the Turkish coast after its control room caught fire, leaving local tourists terrified.

According to analysts at the maritime risk analysis firm Vanguard, the attacks are no longer limited to ports and their surroundings – shipping is now at risk in a wider area of the Black Sea.

Import-dependent countries most at risk of losses

Russia is the world’s largest grain exporter, with a significant portion of its grain exports going to Middle Eastern and North African countries, particularly Turkey and Egypt. Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest grain exporter. According to an analysis by Oxford Economics, more than 70 percent of Russia’s seaborne grain exports pass through Black Sea ports, and about 20 percent through the Sea of Azov.

In July, Russia closed shipping in the Sea of Azov following a series of drone attacks by Ukraine, and later exported some food products via alternative routes—the Caspian Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Pacific Ocean. Analysts fear that this unstable situation could put new pressure on food prices, as grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine have already fallen significantly. Countries that rely on wheat, barley, and corn imports could be hit hardest.